Another Huge Healthcare Issue
Can Trump Fix This One? Will He Even Care?
America has a metabolic crisis and it’s going to drive healthcare costs in the U.S. dramatically higher – especially for older Americans.
At the same time, social security funding is predicted to dry up by 2033. Tax revenues will only manage to make up 79% of the shortfall as the unfolding demographic trend reaches its zenith. Barring drastic federal government action, retirees in the States will see their social security payments shrink by about 21%.
Let’s take a closer look at this metabolic crisis and how it links to social security.
40 years ago, half of Americans were either overweight or flat out obese. In a new study published in The Lancet, a longstanding medical journal, the percentage of overweight and obese American adults has climbed to 75%.
Here’s a quote from a November 15 New York Times article that is quite astonishing:
“The implications [of obesity] are serious: A Joint Economic Committee Republicans report released this year predicted that obesity will result in up to $9.1 trillion in excess medical expenditures over the next 10 years. Obesity increases the likelihood of numerous metabolic conditions and their associated complications, including high blood pressure, Type 2 diabetes, liver disease, kidney disease, heart attack and stroke. It is also linked to infertility, cancer and poorer mental health outcomes”.
Setting aside the immediate impact on healthcare costs of those who are overweight or obese, unless those individuals shed their weight, they will carry it into their later years (assuming a stroke or heart attack doesn’t take them out before then) further burdening the healthcare cost structure by adding obesity to age-related health costs.
And this ugly scenario is made uglier by the number of young adults who The Lancet study indicates are obese. Almost half between ages 15 and 25 are labelled obese or overweight.
Just consider the jump in diagnosed diabetes among kids in America; 325,000 under the age of 20 have either Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes today. In 2018, only about 23,500 young people under 20 had diagnosed diabetes.
Again, the impact on the U.S. healthcare system will increase as these young people grow into older adults.
In fact, as of 2023, diabetes cost the American healthcare system just about 419 billion dollars a year. And, for reference, while Type 2 diabetes can be effectively reduced through diet, exercise and weight loss, Type 1 means daily insulin injections for life.
At this point, many will say, “well, what will the new Trump administration do?” The answer to that remains a mystery.
As we know, Mr. Trump promised much but delivered little when it came to healthcare in his first term. In fact, he repeatedly stated he wanted to abolish the Affordable Care Act (aka, Obamacare) but couldn’t find a better alternative.
What will he do this time? He has “promised” to eliminate taxes on social security benefits, and on the surface this sounds dandy. But there goes a source of tax revenue. Same with overtime pay and tips. No taxation. No revenue.
To make up the shortfall, “Tariff Man” will impose tariffs on virtually everything America imports. This, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, would be highly inflationary and cost everyone, but especially older Americans, a lot more for just about everything.
Perhaps the one big promise with the potential for disaster is his goal to deport illegal immigrants by the hundreds of thousands, if not millions.
Many immigrants, illegal or not, make up the bulk of health service workers, employed by retirement residence corporations and long term care operators. There aren’t many native American citizens willing to work in those low-paid jobs, so how will important elder care homes operate without them?
While we don’t know for sure how many of his election promises he will be able to keep, one thing is abundantly clear: Mr. Trump is sitting on a ticking time bomb and, like the Roman Emperor, Nero, is prepared to fiddle while Rome burns.